Sunday, September 30, 2012

Corbett @ Philamuseum.org town hall, Sept. 19th, 2012

Join me next Wednesday, to let Corbett know that Pennsylvanians want a sustainable energy supply and sustainable jobs that are safe for us today, and that will preserve our ecosystem and natural resources for use tomorrow. This means radical rethinking on regulation and fees for hydraulic fracture drilling for shale gas, and renewed commitments to supporting renewable energy investment here in Pennsylvania.

Old-guard energy money talks, but organized people alive to their own and their children’s interests, together with a nacent renewables industry, still can talk louder.

Town Hall Meeting registration page by Eventbrite

Corbett @ Philamuseum.org town hall, Sept. 19th, 2012 Copyright Robert Monk, 2012

Source: http://www.phillylicensedelectrician.com/corbett-philamuseum-org-town-hall-sept-19th-2012/

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Fall Cleaning: Energy Efficient Projects At No Cost

As Fall quickly approaches, it may be wise to take some time to use the change of seasons to conduct a few, simple energy efficient projects that will cost you absolutely nothing, ultimately saving money in the long run.

Clean your refrigerator

It’s a fact that refrigerators use more energy than any other home appliances while cooling one of the most important things in your home: your food. Keeping your refrigerator more efficient while keeping it maintained is easier than you think. To ensure you’re getting the most out of your fridge, vacuum the coils on the back or bottom and check the temperature; it should register at 41 degrees Fahrenheit, which is optimal for food safety but not too cold to waste electricity.

Clean your dryer

Load after load, lint can build up in your dryer’s hose and pipes, increasing your dryer’s energy usage by up to 30 percent. Build-up can not only create a fire hazard, but it presents moist air from venting outside, causing mildew problems. Vacuum the lint filter, the lint from the back of the machine and from the pipes where the hose is attached to the wall.

Source: http://powergenerationinc.com/fall-cleaning-energy-efficient-projects-at-no-cost/

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MAP Leadership Award

Management Action Programs, Inc. (MAP) would like to acknowledge your company’s commitment to excellence in everything you do. Your focus on outstanding customer service, quality and results has enabled ATS Electric to develop an impeccable reputation in the marketplace. A large part of your success is due to your commitment to your employee success. You [...]

Source: http://blog.atselectricinc.com/2012/04/map-leadership-award-10/

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Wind Consequences (Part II: Analysis Approach and Implementation Costs)

Part I yesterday provided an introduction and summary of results; this post describes in more detail the analysis approach and implementation costs. Parts III and IV will cover the full costs and other results.

As will be seen, dealing with wind is not as easy as some would suggest.

Analysis Approach

This analysis looks at a 13 year period (years 0-12) in which the demand growth and plant retirement due to obsolescence/age will be each 2% per year compounded. Assuming year 0 is 2012, year 12 is 2025. Table II-1 shows the situation at year 12.

Table II-1 – Year 12 Situation for a Year 0 Demand Level of 1.0 TWh

Using demand of 1 TWh in year 0 allows easy scaling for a particular jurisdiction. For example in 2010 the total US electricity production was about 4,000 TWh.

The profile of the new generation capacity to meet the electricity production gap of 0.48 TWh would normally be a combination of plant types depending on a number of considerations. However in most cases, this analysis shows the effect of using one plant type only to meet the electricity production gap. This is done to illustrate the performance of the energy source involved.

When wind is present, another plant type must also be included to balance wind’s persistent erratic behavior. This is otherwise redundant new capacity, meaning over and above that which would normally be required. There are two “wind” scenarios. One is a combination of wind and natural gas to meet the electricity production gap. Given the belief, by some at least, that more extensive wind implementation is desirable, the second scenario addresses this, allowing wind to provide the full 0.48 TWh, which we will see is not feasible.

My calculations are simplifications of complex considerations. There are more precise/sophisticated approaches in other studies, which may appear more impressive, but these will be obscure to many, and not necessarily more accurate, due to some or all of the following:

  • Sophistication of the approach, meaning the assumptions and treatment of the considerations are so difficult to understand that the whole process is largely inaccessible to many people. It also has the appearance of validity because of this. Further the authors themselves might be blinded by this.
  • Inappropriate use of complex mathematics, which is often a substitute for thinking/understanding on the part of the author(s) and readers.
  • Accuracy and incompleteness of the underlying public data, especially emissions data.
  • Omission of some of the necessary considerations, as included here, resulting in an even more “simple”, but superficial, approach, which does not produce useful results.

So my analysis falls between these two positions. It is more straight-forward and transparent, and I suggest sufficiently indicative of realistic results. See the DOE/EIA assumptions for electricity calculations in the Energy Outlook 2012 for an example of more complex treatment of the issues.

However complexity is hard to avoid given the nature of the matter. So the logic I use is complex because of the many factors at play, and this is unfortunate but necessary. On the other hand, the mathematics that follows is reasonably straight forward, the most complex being the determination of the “payment” amount for a given interest rate over time for a capital investment.

In the paraphrased words of Nassim Taleb, one can be wrong with great precision (for whatever the reason and by whatever means) instead of approximately right.[1] As well one can be wrong by being simple, but superficial.

There is so much detail that it is not practical to present it all in this series. Those interested can see it at Calculations.

Scenarios Analyzed

The scenarios analyzed are for coal, nuclear, natural gas, onshore wind/natural gas combination, and onshore wind to meet the electricity production gap, respectively. Offshore wind is not considered because it will perform no better overall than onshore.

The analysis draws on information in DOE/EIA publications.[2] For new plant implementations the “advanced” plant type information is used. In the natural gas cases, performance is taken to be the average of advanced combined cycle and advanced combustion turbine information. This combination in the natural gas scenario provides a good baseline for comparison purposes.

Table II-2 shows results in year 12 for these scenarios, assuming that in each case the energy source(s) indicated provides the total electricity production gap.

Table II-2 – Results for Year 12 by EROEIe Performance

At a high level of analysis, it appears that all energy sources identified in each scenario can fill the production gap to meet the future demand, as shown in row 1. Row 3 demonstrates the effect of deducting 50% of the energy investment (EIe) required for the new electricity infrastructure. This shortfall increases dramatically as EROEIe decreases. Note the 50% factored electrical energy component of EIe component in row 2 does not contribute to meeting the demand shown in row 1. It represents an increase in demand.

The shortfall due to the factored EIe (line 2) may be made up from existing plant capacity, increasing the capacity factor for new plants or by adding additional new plants. This is a complex matter and depends in part upon the profile of the plant portfolio retired/added and those remaining over the analysis period. For example existing or new hydro generation plants typically have a low capacity factor and cannot realistically be relied upon for more production, and existing or new plants supplying base load already have a high capacity factor and consequently are not available for additional production. In the higher EIe scenarios, it is assumed that additional new plant capacity is required.

For the wind/natural gas scenario, duplicate, reliable, flexible capacity, that is 88 MW of gas plant capacity, is required for wind balancing. In this analysis it is higher than the full wind case for a number of reasons:

  • The 38% wind penetration represents a level that is not supportable within an electricity system without substantially more gas plant balancing capacity than that shown here.[3] This is a complex scenario to analyze and the most straight forward approach is to assume substantial wind curtailment, or some other form of dumping, such as export or paying some customers, who are able to accommodate it, to take the excess electricity produced. The analysis assumes an annualized average of 55 MW for wind, so curtailment would occur to a high degree when the wind electricity flux exceeds 55 MW (MWh/h) in real time. Alternatively, gas plant capacity would be required to meet demand during periods of real time wind production below 55 MW. The wind balancing gas plants will operate at lower efficiencies as a result.
  • Higher gas plant capacities would be an alternative approach, otherwise wind may have gained too much in this analysis. Some attempt has been made to indicate this, primarily to introduce it as a factor to be noted, but it is not easy to project the amounts involved, because this would be dependent on the inevitable curtailment levels described above. This approach would also mean some of the existing plant base would have to be reduced to accommodate the combined wind/gas production, which may or may not be feasible, depending on the profile of that portion of the total plant fleet. There are cost consequences in this connection, which are covered below.

To remove the wind scenario would leave open the question as to its consequences. So it has been left in with the understanding that it is not a realistic option at all, but some measure of these consequences can be determined.

There are other factors not covered in the wind scenarios. First is the effect of the inevitable lower wind capacity factors as penetration increases due to the better sites being already taken. Second, payments that would likely be made to (1) wind plant owners to compensate them for curtailment, otherwise they would not be financially viable (alarms bells should sound here), and (2) conventional plant operators who will be required to reduce production, otherwise reasonably expected to be earned, due to policies requiring wind to take precedence, as it occurs.

Finally, do not be distracted by reports of wind causing low (or even negative) electricity rates in the wholesale markets. The costs shown here must be paid by someone and will appear in taxes and retail electricity rates in the jurisdiction hosting the wind plants.

The adverse effects of wind imposition increase with wind penetration. Table II-3- provides this for the wind scenarios, which is aggressive at 11%. This is in the range of the most wind intensive countries in Europe (including Denmark after taking exports into account), which are at domestic saturation levels. Remember though that these countries are dependent on international markets for their otherwise unsustainable wind turbine manufacturing industries so must live with the consequences to promote the policy. The US wind penetration in electrical energy terms in 2010 was 2.3%.[4]

Table II-3 – Wind Penetration

Be careful with wind penetration statistics to properly understand them. First they should be in energy terms, not capacity, and should be free of exports and any special treatment of curtailment.

New Generation Plant Implementation Costs

Table II-4 shows details of the cumulative overnight implementation costs for new plants at year 12. Reserve considerations are covered in Calculations. In the wind scenarios these are part of all the total costs associated with the persistent erratic nature of wind. This starts to explain the significant variance with DOE/EIA reported amounts when levelized costs are shown in Part III. So the following information starts on the path of providing a basis for comparison to the other plant types.

Table II-4 – New Plant Cumulative Overnight Implementation Costs at Year 12

DOE/EIA overnight capital costs are used except in the nuclear scenario, for which a higher implementation cost of $8.0 per MW (versus the DOE/EIA cost of $5.3 million) is taken to be conservative. The wind/natural gas case has lower implementation costs than nuclear largely because of the gas plant contribution, which provides 70% of the electricity production gap due to the assumed 30% capacity factor for wind. A more instructive comparison can be seen in the wind scenario.

However, remember that in both wind scenarios, the wind plants produce for only 15 years versus the other plant types, which have longer lives. For comparison purposes, both wind scenarios should assess the costs for two wind plant replacements over the 40 year period, which would raise the wind/natural gas new plant cost to $476 million and the wind scenario to $1,389 million. As we will see this is not the total picture.

For the Table II-4 values, the US investment, excluding unique-to-wind grid investments, for the wind/natural gas case would be $212 million (per TWh) x 4,000 (total US TWh in 2010) = $712,000 million or $712 billion and consistent with my findings elsewhere.

In the wind/natural gas scenario the gas plant capacity is required to ensure wind is fully balanced. Some of this capacity is generating electricity that is balancing wind, but coincidentally is meeting some demand. The full plant implementation costs are attributed to wind, because wind requires that capacity to be there for it to work in an electricity system. When full wind costs are allocated in later posts, the “normal” costs of the gas plant operations and maintenance, including fuel costs which are significant, are not attributed to wind, even though the energy flux is part of the necessary wind balancing. However there is an efficiency loss for wind balancing plants and this is attributed to wind costs.

A baseline of the minimum total capacity needed to meet future demand appears to be in the range of 198-229 MW per TWh of electricity production (Table II-3). An analysis in Calculations supports 230 MW. The coal and nuclear scenarios show lower numbers because of their high capacity factors, and the simplifying assumption that each scenario, except for the wind/natural gas combination, shows the effect a single fuel source used to meet the electricity production gap.

So, in the wind/natural gas case an additional (that is over and above what would normally be required to meet demand) 50 MW (280–230 MW), or 91% of the wind capacity is needed for 11% wind penetration. This additional capacity is fairly consistent with the concept of wind capacity credit forecasts from the German Energy Agency (dena) for 8% wind penetration, which shows that additional redundant capacity of 94% of the wind capacity is required.[5] According to dena and other sources, capacity credit decreases as wind penetration increases, so the new gas plant capacity here is likely understated for 11% wind penetration.

To further understand the impact of the wind scenario, Table II-5 scales to U.S. electricity system the plant types being assessed.

Table II-5 – Scaling Capacities to the U.S. Electricity System of 1,100 GW

In the wind/natural gas scenario adequate wind balancing capacity has also been added to absorb wind’s persistent erratic behavior. In the wind scenario, as already noted, considerable wind curtailment would have to occur otherwise the remaining 364 MW of the U.S. generation capacity (1,100 – 736) would be totally inadequate to balance wind. This is not a recipe for a reliable electricity system.

Grid Costs Unique to Wind

Generally speaking, the existing electricity grid is a distribution network to users from centralized generation plants, which are sited depending upon need. It is established to serve users. Changes to this grid will be necessary over the period studied due to replacement, increases in demand, including regional shifts in demand, and upgrades or improvements in grid technology. The provision of economic, reliable electricity, as and when required, is a social need and these costs should be shared amongst all generation sources.

On the other hand, again generally speaking, grid changes needed to accommodate wind are for energy collection, otherwise not needed long distance transmission to demand locations and user demand management systems needed to serve wind’s shortcomings. In other words, grid changes unique to wind plants, are primarily due to (1) the dispersion of the energy source (fuel), wind (and solar radiation), (2) the need to site these plants where the energy flux is strongest, not necessarily near to demand centers, and, (3) such other technologies (such as smart meters) that purport to facilitate the integration of unreliable, random wind production through possible demand limitation and conveniently provide the electricity cost rate capability needed to finance them. They serve the wind plants.

These grid changes unique to wind are substantial, with a required monetary investment of about the same order of magnitude as the wind plants. In smaller wind penetrations with curtailment not as large, some transmission lines must have the capacity to carry up to full wind production, not the annualized average at 30% of capacity. I have not seen a comprehensive study and these costs are hard to quantify, but I have previously made an attempt to do so here and here. Table II-6 shows these cost estimates for the scenarios.

Table II-6 – Overnight Grid Implementation Costs Unique to Wind

The grid costs are amortized over 40 years. At the 15 year plant life for wind plants three ongoing options present themselves.

  • Option 1. – Remove and do not replace the wind plants. In this case the unique-to-wind grid elements may represent stranded costs or they might be useful in the ongoing electricity system, or some blend of these two considerations. Most likely they will be stranded costs.
  • Option 2. – Re-invest in new wind plants in the same location to the capacity that existed at year 15. In this case the above grid elements would be needed as before. This analysis provides for this.

From an EROEI point of view, the grid changes unique to wind are included in the net EROEI calculated for wind. The EI burden of these grid changes is assumed to be 1 year of wind plant production, added to that of the wind plant EI. This represents one-half of the EI energy burden for the wind plants themselves, but could be larger.

Claims are often made about the smoothing benefits of geographic dispersion of wind plants. Although this might seem intuitively so, real experience shows this does very little improve wind’s overall persistent erratic behavior.[6]

For information on smart grid issues, and the reasons for not moving too quickly into this area, see my articles at MasterResource.[7]

Coming Next

As interesting and informative as the overnight implementation costs for plants and grid changes might be, they only show part of the cost picture. Wind is not doing well, and it does not get any better. Simply put: wind is not a “plug and play” option.

The next post will develop the full costs, which will take into consideration whether or not the wind plants are replaced after 15 years. My expectation is that by 2025, likely much sooner, we will have finally come to our senses that grid-feeding, industrial-scale wind is not feasible and not worthy of commercialization.


[1] Taleb, Nassim (2007). “The Black Swan”, Random House, p74

[2] These are primarily:

DOE/EIA (2012). “Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2012” http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm

DOE/EIA (2012). “Assumptions – Electricity Market Module” http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/pdf/electricity.pdf

[3] Denmark is a case in point. It has a wind penetration as a percentage of domestic consumption in the high twenties. It manages this by exporting the majority of the wind production to Norway/Sweden where the combined hydro capacity is 30 times Denmark’s wind production. For more information see “Peeling Back the Onion of Denmark Wind (Part III – Wind Electricity Used in Denmark”, at http://www.masterresource.org/2010/10/denmark-part-iii-internal/

[4] DOE/EIA (2011). “Electricity: Detailed State Data”, first spreadsheet. Penetration calculated from totals at bottom of first spreadsheet. http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/state/

[5] Study commissioned by the German Energy Agency, Deutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH (dena) (2005), “Planning of the Grid Integration of Wind Energy in Germany Onshore and Offshore up to the Year 2020 (dena Grid study)” http://www.susplan.eu/fileadmin/susplan/documents/dena-grid_study_summary.pdf. Wind capacity credit can be calculated from Tables 1 and 5 in the Appendix as follows for 2010: 1.8 (GW statistically guaranteed) / 29.8 (GW wind installed) = 6%. This means 94% of wind capacity has to be provided by redundant reliable capacity to ensure overall electricity system reliability (at a fairly liberal 99%). Actual wind penetration in 2010 was only 37.5 TWh, or 6% penetration, lower than 2005 projections of 29.8 (GW) x 0.18 (CF) x 8760 (hours per year) = 46,989 GWh or 47 TWh. http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/03/new-record-for-german-renewable-energy-in-2010 . This suggests that the projected penetration was expected to be about 8%. The conclusion is that more gas plant capacity is needed than shown in my calculations above. For more information on capacity credit considerations see http://dialogue.usaee.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=95&Itemid=113

[6] The following is a list of references on this subject:

http://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2011/04/gone_with_the_wind_debunking_geographic_diversity_1.html

http://www.ref.org.uk/attachments/article/227/info%20note%20ref%20%20poyry%2031%2003%2011.pdf

http://www.slideshare.net/JohnDroz/energy-presentationkey-presentation slides 70-73

Wind Power in Ontario: Quantifying the Benefits of Geographic Diversity

http://www.wind-watch.org/documents/wp-content/uploads/oswald-energy-policy-2008.pdf

http://aefweb.info/data/Wind%20farming%20in%20SE%20Australia.pdf

[7] Hawkins, Kent (2011). “The Smart Grid and Distributed Generation: A Glimpse of a Distant Future” http://www.masterresource.org/2011/04/the-smart-grid-and-dg/ and (2010) “Smart Grid Problems Revealed: The NERC Study” http://www.masterresource.org/2010/08/smart-grid-nerc/

Source: http://www.masterresource.org/2012/09/wind-consequences-ii/

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Los Angeles Electrician Knows the Pros and Cons of Electrical Heating Systems

Although there are many options out there for heating your home, electric heating options have become one of the most popular solutions in many areas of the country. It is generally clean, low-maintenance heating that gives off no soot or fumes associated with combustible heat sources. It is also much less expensive to install in both existing homes and new construction. Once installed, however, electrical heating can be more expensive than gas or other heat sources.

Often in addition to a central heating system, electrical heat sources are placed in homes to provide additional heat to areas that need it. This can by done by any homeowner, and generally requires no help from an electrician unless there’s the need to have additional electrical outlets installed. While this type of heating can be somewhat efficient if used properly, unchecked small heaters can lead to excessive energy usage. To prevent this, you should only use portable heaters if they have a built-in thermostat. You can also find heaters that will turn themselves on and off according to a schedule. These advanced features are more expensive, but can be very convenient.

The various types of electric heaters include:

Storage Heaters

Storage heaters are fairly large heating units, which are mounted to a wall and must typically be installed by an electrician. These heaters are unique, in that they generate heat during off-peak times so that your electrical bills remain low. They will then release that stored heat during the day. In order for this type of heater to work efficiently, special off-peak meters must be installed and agreements with your utility company must be made. This is one of the cheapest types of electrical heating to have installed, but it can be more expensive than other central heating options.

Fan Heaters

You can find a variety of fan heaters in nearly every store that you visit during the winter. This relatively cheap, portable solution can provide fast, portable heat to a small area. This makes them ideal for providing additional heat to areas that need it.
Convector Heaters
Convector heaters are bigger than fan heaters, but provide more long lasting, even heat. While they take longer to heat up, they make little to no noise, which makes them much more appealing than heaters with noisy fans. There are many options available, most of which do not require the assistance of a licensed electrician.

Underfloor Heating

Under floor heating is an excellent solution in many ways. If you are building a new home, this may be an especially great option for you. Because it can be very invasive, however, under floor heating is not recommended for pre-existing structures. Heat is generated and distributed through a network of electrical heating cables that are placed under your floors.

Electric Fireplaces

Another home or office heating methods that’s gaining popularity today is the electric fireplace. Because they require less maintenance than traditional wood or gas fireplaces, many people are choosing this aesthetically pleasing heating option. These fires provide various levels of heat, as well as a visually pleasing fire effect.
Regardless of the electrical heating solution that you choose, make sure that you look into the different options and choose the one that is best suited for your needs. If you have any doubts or questions about the use and installation of an electrical heat source, get in touch with an electrician in Los Angeles, such as The Electric Connection. We are a licensed, bonded and insured Los Angeles electrician. We will be more than happy to discuss the different types of electrical heat sources that are available, as well as what the installation requirements would be.

Source: http://www.theelectricconnection.com/los-angeles-electrician-blog/los-angeles-electrician-pros-cons-electrical-heating-systems/

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Electrician Talks About Commercial Electrical Work – Commercial Electrician South Florida

Several electrical appliances and lighting are constantly in use at any one time in homes and offices. Interruptions with electricity supply due to faulty wiring or other problems can therefore cause a lot of inconvenience. In an office, it can cause things to grind to a halt.  This is why it is important to hire  [...]

Source: http://www.perfectelectricrepairs.com/2012/electrician-talks-about-commercial-electrical-work-commercial-electrician-south-florida.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=electrician-talks-about-commercial-electrical-work-commercial-electrician-south-florida

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Power Quality

Poor power quality can show up in many ways, flickering or dimming lighting fixtures, computer crashes or constant air conditioning equipment failures. Sometimes determining the cause of such problems can be very complex, especially when the problems seem very intermittent. ATS Electric Inc., employs the latest power analyzing equipment that can monitor your system for [...]

Source: http://blog.atselectricinc.com/2012/04/power-quality-8/

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Fort Lauderdale Residential Electrical Contractor Hurricane Protection Tips

Hurricane protection checklists for Broward county and south Florida are readily available online and are split into four categories that list what to do before hurricane season starts, during a watch, during a warning and after the storm passes. Most residents will follow these guidelines, but, for residents with elaborate security, entertainment, HVAC, and communication [...]

Source: http://www.perfectelectricrepairs.com/2012/fort-lauderdale-residential-electrical-contractor-hurricane-protection-tips.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=fort-lauderdale-residential-electrical-contractor-hurricane-protection-tips

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Saturday, September 29, 2012

Surge Protection on Kauai

  Kauai’s electrical grid surges affect the life span of our computers, appliances, and other electronic equipment.  Power surges can also completely roast the internal electronic parts during a storm or utility fault. What you need: Installing a whole house surge protector by a licensed electrician will greatly decrease the risk of power surge destruction. [...]

Source: http://www.blueskyelectric.net/blog/surge-protection-on-kauai/

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Beat The Summer Heat: Cool Your Home Efficientally

As the summer heat continues to increase, we’re all looking for more efficient ways to cool off in our homes without breaking the bank. While lowering the AC may be your first instinct for a quick cool-down, you’ll find yourself paying in the long run. Here are some tips to staying cool this summer:

Avoid the oven

Turning on the oven to heat food at 450 degrees will obviously heat up your home. Leaving the oven off and the hot foods for the fall and winter months, make good use of your outdoor barbeque or try investing in fresh summer foods that don’t need to be cooked. Cold fruits from the fridge and ice water will leave you feeling cooler, as well.

Air circulation

Don’t be afraid to open up the windows on a warm, but breezy day. Having numerous windows open– versus just opening the windows in the room you’re in– will help cool both you and your home off. Strategically placing fans around the house and making use of ceiling fans will also circulate outdoor air throughout your home. Remember: Heat rises.

Invest in shades and curtains

Don’t forget to close your shades and curtains during the prime heat hours. Sun beaming through an untinted window can heat up your home quicker than you might think. Be sure to shade windows on the side of your house facing the sun. It’s easier to prevent your house from warmer up than to cool it down.

Source: http://powergenerationinc.com/beat-the-summer-heat-cool-your-home-efficientally/

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Reputation the Best Tool

Cooper Electric photo from Enquirer 150x150 Reputation the Best Tool
Reputation the Best Tool
Cincinnati, OH - Jeff Wallner - Enquirer 
Electrical Contractors are among those hit hardest by the recession, with nearly 40 percent unemployment industrywide. And yet Cooper Electric has not laid off a single employee due to lack of work.

To the contrary, the 65-year-old South Cumminsville firm plans to hire additional staff next year in advance of a projected 20 percent increase in the $4 million in revenues estimated for 2011.

So how did they do it?

Company president Greg Hyland says it's the result of a commitment to customer satisfaction and retention, and a successful strategy built around a process called thermography.

"We've been able to keep the recession at bay," Hyland says. "Seventy percent of our business is repeats and referrals. That's a reflection of the people here. You're only as good as your last job. You can flush a 30 year relationship down the drain if you botch it."

That's why Cooper Electric created its Thermography Division more than a decade ago. Thermography is the use of infrared thermal imaging cameras to see inside electric equipment to uncover hot spots or other potential service issues before they result in a costly mechanical failure.

Cooper Electric's high-definition imaging provides a highly accurate measurement of heat that can reveal bad connections, overcurrent and poor insulation or ventilation.

Thermography is relatively old technology, and it's widely used throughout the industry. But Cooper Electric has parlayed the process into a preventive maintenance toll that has helped increase value for its customers and build-long term relationships.
 

Source: http://cooper-electric.net/reputation-the-best-tool/

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Energy Audit

It was a pleasure meeting you in person today, thank you for the opportunity to help you lower your energy consumption. Just for a reminder of what we covered today I put together this list: Install a blanket cover for the water heater, use duct tape to attach. Also flush it out every year to [...]

Source: http://www.enlighten-electric.com/2012/03/energy-audit/

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Freezers & Dedicated Circuits

I have heard many a horror story of someone who went off for vacation and came home to a freezer full of some very spoiled meat in their freezer in the garage. Nearly everyone I know has a secondary freezer or refrigerator in their garage. The code requires that receptacles in garages have GFCI protection. [...]

Source: http://blog.atselectricinc.com/2012/08/freezers-dedicated-circuits-7/

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Wire Colors Say It All

When you are ready to pull ire in conduit or install wiring in your home, color is everything. Each insulated wire has a purpose and for that reason, it is color coded. Each color tells its own story about what it is intended for. A green wire is always used for a ground wire and nothing else. You see, it is this specific color that makes it what it is.

By using these predetermined colors for electrical wire installation, you'll soon see the benefits of wire color coding.

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Source: http://electrical.about.com/b/2012/09/29/wire-colors-say-it-all.htm

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Construction Starts Thru 8 Months: PUNK

McGraw-Hill Construction’s recent report on data for the “dollar value of construction starts” in August showed an 8% gain (over July).

That month-to-month fluctuation is distracting and includes seasonal adjustments. To get by that, let’s look at the UNadjusted year-to-date (start values through 8 months of 2012) data:

EleBlog notes:

(a) Earlier in the year, this was at a +4% (total construction). The comparisons with 2011 have declined just a bit.

(b) 2011 sucked. +3% compared to 2011 sucks. This just is NOT good, even if it offers a “+” sign.

(c) if the U.S. and global economies are headed for a fall — and the recent (around Sept. 13) separate Last-Ditch moves by the U.S. Fed and the European Central Bank should tell you that — the residential uptick won’t hold up.

Source: http://electricalcontractor.com/?p=6256

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Lighting Reps Talk LEDs (to Analyst Firm)

Piper Jaffray, as part of what some stock-market analysts DO, spoke recently about LEDs to 11 “lighting agents” — lighting reps, the guys and gals with whom electrical contractors come into contact all of the time.

One of them was David Shiller. I get his e-mail newsletter (which is a valuable thing). He provided a link to the PJ report, a PDF. If you download it, you’ll wanna read just the first 2-3 pages. Among other interesting pieces:

  • Overall lighting sales are flat in 2012, but LED sales are up 20% to 30%
  • That increase — in dollars — is coming despite a steady drop in LED prices. So the unit volume has gotta be up more, obviously, than 20%-30%.
  • “Agents tell us that most of this demand [for LEDs] comes from commercial retrofit projects.”

EleBlog note: The PJ analysis states that the lighting reps aren’t seeing sales growth in line with the growth in construction spending (the “put-in-place” numbers from the U.S. government). This is attributed to:

(a) most construction spending is new construction, lighting goes in last, so the projects haven’t gotten to the lighting part yet

(b) “most lighting sales go into the retrofit market”

(c) residential’s embrace of LEDs is far from bone-crushing at this time.

Problems with this include:

1 – it’s not clear that the “put in place” spending tracked by the government does not include RETROFITS. The government data do not break out New Construction vs. Renovation. It’s just not there. For all anyone knows, much of the “put in place” increase is retrofits, not new construction.

2 – If you trouble to check, the government’s numbers through July 2012 (7 months) show a pick-up — vs. 2011′s first 7 months — show an increase of more than $42 billion in nonresidential construction spending.

BUT (and it’s a big butt) — Of that, more than $20 billion came in Power + Manufacturing construction. Lighting just isn’t a big deal in these two niches — which together make up half the nonres gain.

BOTTOM LINE (for the EleBlog, anyway) — the PJ analyst(s) are to be lauded for talking to the people who live where the rubber meets the road — the lighting reps. But a quick click over to the Census website could have told them why the lighting rebound does not match the boost in nonresidential construction spending . . .

 

 

Source: http://electricalcontractor.com/?p=6259

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Friday, September 28, 2012

LED Lighting For Your Laundry Room

Getting the most out of your laundry room starts with the right lighting fixtures from your Pasadena lighting contractor. Without the right lighting in your laundry room, you might as well be doing your laundry in the closet. Conventional lighting can be too hot for an already warm space. Florescent bulbs tend to make a room feel like your cleaning clothes at the DMV. Use this guide to lighting with LED bulbs and you can be sure your mud room will be well lit for an affordable price.

LED Track Lighting

For laundry spaces that need a bright light source, LED track fixtures can be the source that you need to light your washer, dryer and folding area with one simple switch. LED’s are easy to install over existing fixtures. Attach these fantastic laundry lights to a dimmer switch and you can keep the lights low for when you leave the room and turn them on bright when you need to fold the clothes.

Under cabinet Lighting

Many mud rooms have cabinets above the washer, dryer, lavatory or laundry folding area. These are excellent areas for installing under cabinet lights. LED under cabinet systems are easy to install and work well with most hanging cabinet styles. When installing under cabinet LED’s, it’s a good idea to space them apart about two feet for optimal light displacement. Rope lights are also another style of under cabinet lighting that works great in laundry room areas and can provide your laundry space with a continuous ambient light source under the cabinets.

Recessed Lights

A recessed fixture is commonly employed over the top of each laundry appliance and counter space facing directly down onto the surface. These flush ceiling LED fixtures are fantastic ways to keep your laundry room well lit without the need for exposed fixtures. Recessed lighting comes in various styles but LED recessed lighting works particularly better than a conventional can light in many ways. LED recessed lights are much smaller, yet yield more lumens per watt. Since they produce little heat, they can be installed in areas where conventional recessed lighting cannot. They also use significantly less energy making them a great addition to any mud room.

 

Source: http://www.accurateelectricalservices.com/CA-Electrician/lighting/led-lighting-laundry-room

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Schedule A Thermographic Electrical Inspection

Schedule A Thermographic Electrical Inspection 


Top 5 Reasons:

For any industrial business or operation, it is important to catch equipment and electrical problems before any operating failures can occur. Any problem that does go undetected can inflict extensive damage on your equipment and your business as a whole. Thermographic electrical inspections use High-Definition Thermographic (Infrared) cameras in order to determine temperature changes in electrical components. To help illustrate the importance of thermographic inspections, here are five factors to consider.

1. Catch Defective or Failing Components Early:

You can't always tell when a piece of equipment is about to fail. They don't all smoke and make noise. Instead, thermographic imaging is used to detect temperature abnormalities. This also works well with concealed equipment. By finding potential problems early, they can be fixed so that there is no down time.

2. Prevent Loss of Production Time:

An operating failure can shut your operation down for days, weeks or even longer. Keep your operation up and running and productive at all times by scheduling regular thermographic electrical inspections.

3. Save On Maintenance and Replacement Costs:

Regular thermographic inspections can help you save on maintenance costs and the costs associated with replacing failed equipment. By catching issues early on, your equipment will last longer with fewer and less-frequent replacements overall.

4. Prevent Fires and Personal Injury:

If left to get worse, loose wiring, faulty breakers and other problems can easily cause a fire. Furthermore, failed equipment can create safety hazards that have the potential to harm you or one of your employees. Don’t take chances. Predictive thermal inspections will help you protect your business and your staff from any dangerous conditions.

5. You Can Schedule During Regular Business Operations:

There is no need to shut down production simply because you have scheduled a thermographic electrical inspection. The best time to conduct a thermographic scan is when business is running as usual, as that is when most problems occur. Your inspector will work around your equipment and personnel. You might even forget the inspector is there.

The Inspection Results

When you schedule a thermographic electrical inspection, you will receive a complete report from your inspector that includes any abnormalities found, along with recommended courses of action. If there are any issues that demand your immediate attention, those will be focused on first. The report includes high-definition images and comparisons of scans over time. If there are any issues with your electrical systems or components, your inspector will find them.

By now you should be convinced that a thermographic electrical inspection is a wise decision and investment. With state-of-the-art equipment, training and certification, your inspector will attempt to catch potential problems before they are realized. If conducted regularly, you can extend the life of your equipment, save on maintenance and replacement costs and you can protect your business from down time and other disasters. By checking your electrical switch gear, panels, buss bar feeders and all other components and equipment, your thermographic inspector will help you find even the smallest of problems before they get out of hand.

We provide Thermography Cincinnati Inspections and Nationwide.

Source: http://cooper-electric.net/schedule-a-thermographic-electrical-inspection/

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EV Charging Stations

We believe the future of clean transportation lies with electric vehicles. Here’s an example of a charging station we recently installed.  

Source: http://www.enlighten-electric.com/2012/03/ev-charging-stations/

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How Can You Improve Your Home Value Before the Sale?

If you're thinking of selling your home or just sprucing it up to get it up to date, there are many ways to improve the value of your home without spending an arm and a leg. Then again, for major changes, there is an added expense, but these changes can greatly improve your home's value.

...

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Source: http://electrical.about.com/b/2012/09/22/how-can-you-improve-your-home-value-before-the-sale.htm

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Fall Cleaning: Energy Efficient Projects At No Cost

As Fall quickly approaches, it may be wise to take some time to use the change of seasons to conduct a few, simple energy efficient projects that will cost you absolutely nothing, ultimately saving money in the long run.

Clean your refrigerator

It’s a fact that refrigerators use more energy than any other home appliances while cooling one of the most important things in your home: your food. Keeping your refrigerator more efficient while keeping it maintained is easier than you think. To ensure you’re getting the most out of your fridge, vacuum the coils on the back or bottom and check the temperature; it should register at 41 degrees Fahrenheit, which is optimal for food safety but not too cold to waste electricity.

Clean your dryer

Load after load, lint can build up in your dryer’s hose and pipes, increasing your dryer’s energy usage by up to 30 percent. Build-up can not only create a fire hazard, but it presents moist air from venting outside, causing mildew problems. Vacuum the lint filter, the lint from the back of the machine and from the pipes where the hose is attached to the wall.

Source: http://powergenerationinc.com/fall-cleaning-energy-efficient-projects-at-no-cost/

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Mayor Nutter, DOE @ PennFuture Clean Energy Conference, Sept. 13, 2012

PennFuture Clean Energy Conference website. Thurs-Fri, September 13-14th.

Mayor Nutter, DOE @ PennFuture Clean Energy Conference, Sept. 13, 2012 Copyright Robert Monk, 2012

Source: http://www.phillylicensedelectrician.com/mayor-nutter-doe-pennfuture-clean-energy-conference-sept-13-2012/

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Thursday, September 27, 2012

LED Lighting Fixtures Added To The Swiss Alps Jungfraujoch Train Experience

With the help of ETC Selador Desire LED lighting fixtures, a large section of the train journey to the Jungfraujoch station in the Swiss Alps has been turned into a compelling tourist experience.

Up to 5,000 people visit Jungfraujoch each day, with stunning views from the platform, restaurants and a geological station greeting visitors once they’ve finally reached the top. Now, visitors can explore six special attraction areas as part of a new museum-like experience thanks to the new lighting fixtures. A two-minute, 16-second light, sound and automation show for each area was developed by communications company Steiner Sarnen AG.

The ETC fixtures have the ability to seamlessly change color temperature to affect the mood of the lighting for specific parts of the cave.

“We found the Desire fixtures really easy to use,” says Lighting Designer Serge Schmuki of Tokyo Blue. “Currently, we operate the lights in HSIC mode, which means we have control over hue and saturation, as well as the opportunity to adjust the color temperature in both white light and when color mixing.

The IP66 rating on the Desire fixtures certifies that they are both water- and dust-tight.

“The rugged outdoor lights were factory rebuilt for our specific requirements,” says Jürg Bichsel of installation company Stageparts. “Both ETC as the manufacturer and the Swiss important ECM quickly implemented our special requests and even delivered overnight.”

Source: http://powergenerationinc.com/led-lighting-fixtures-added-to-the-swiss-alps-jungfraujoch-train-experience/

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Surge Protection on Kauai

  Kauai’s electrical grid surges affect the life span of our computers, appliances, and other electronic equipment.  Power surges can also completely roast the internal electronic parts during a storm or utility fault. What you need: Installing a whole house surge protector by a licensed electrician will greatly decrease the risk of power surge destruction. [...]

Source: http://www.blueskyelectric.net/blog/surge-protection-on-kauai/

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Is Solar Right for Your Home?

Putting a solar array on your home can be quite an expensive up front cost. This is why people like me and groups like the Nevada Clean Energy Project (CEP) are working to get Public Utilities Commission (PUC) and our representatives in Carson City and Washington DC to provide more incentives and possibly even low [...]

Source: http://www.enlighten-electric.com/2012/02/solar-right-4-home/

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10 Tips for Glendora Electrical Work and Your Safety

When you’re considering electrical work you should put safety first. This article gives a few pointers regarding electricity and safety for you, your family and your home.

  1. Never take risks where electricity is concerned. Electricity can cause serious burns, health problems and kill.
  2. If you’re not qualified to do electrical works then get a registered Glendora electrician to give you a quote on the work to be done. Don’t be tempted to have a go at it yourself. It is a good idea to ask around your neighbors, friends and family who they could recommend as being good and reliable. Get several quotes and choose one according to both their ability and your price range.
  3. When you get quotes, ask for references and check them out. You should also ask to see their registration certificates to verify they are qualified and registered.
  4. Have a good look at all the work you may need doing. Check all your plugs and sockets for loose or exposed wires as well as cracked or damaged sockets.
  5. Light fittings are a common source of problems due to the heat generated by the amount of current flowing through them. Check that they are not cracked or brittle.
  6. If appliances are damaged or have electrical cables exposed you should have them tested by an Glendora electrician to make sure they are safe to use. If they’re not safe then you need to determine whether it’s more economical to repair or replace it.
  7. When all your repair work has been done, it is recommended that you cover your sockets with plastic socket covers that are not easily removed by children. This is to prevent children from pushing objects into the sockets and coming to harm.
  8. It is also worth doing a first aid course so that you are able to respond quickly in the event of an electrical accident. Many power suppliers run courses or will be able to advise you where one is available in your area.
  9. Invest in a portable fire extinguisher. Because water is a conductor of electricity you will need to get a chemical extinguisher. You need to have some sort of reminder to check the charge and that it functions correctly on an annual basis.
  10. Teach small children the dangers of electricity and how to be safe. You can use books or DVD’s as an aid to the training which are available on the internet or bookstores.

Article Source: http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Guillermo_J_Ortiz

 

Source: http://www.accurateelectricalservices.com/CA-Electrician/electrical-contractor/10-tips-glendora-electrical-work-safety

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Advantages of Garage Organization Systems

Think about this: you are about to go to work, but suddenly, you realize you have to get through six inches of snow just to get to your car. This is because your garage is too messed up to have the slightest space just for your car.

If you think the mess in your garage is too much already, think about this: garage organization. A neat and clean garage is guaranteed to make you happy. Think of looking for something you might need in just a short while. To achieve a garage like this, you need garage organization systems. If you have a garage organization system, you could store everything you have in your garage easily. Just invest a little in organizing your garage to make things work for you. Here are just a few advantages of garage organization systems:

1.  You will not get wet from walking through the snow to get to your car because your car is simply inside your garage now.

2.  Your car gas consumption will be much lesser. The reason for this is that you will not have to run your car just to heat it up or cool it down because it has either been too cold or hot from being outside all day or night.

3.  You could also save more money because you do not have to rent an extra storage space or unit just to store all of the stuff that you could store in your garage.

So save up just a little money and start finding the perfect system for you.

-
About the Author:
Devoting some time and effort to garage organization systems can save you headaches in the long run. Get more help for your garage at http://www.yourhomeisorganized.com/GarageOrganization.htm
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Source: http://reschelectrical.com/advantages-of-garage-organization-systems/

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Stop The Energy Eaters

I'm often asked what can be done to help save on the electric bill around the home. What are the common things that can simply cut my bills without making major renovations to my home that might cost me more than the savings itself? You may be surprised to find out that some of the biggest energy wasters i your home are your favorite thngs, electronic devices. They can gobble up power without even being on. That's right! Just having them plugged in can use power, but here's how to stop the energy wasters.


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Source: http://electrical.about.com/b/2012/09/09/stop-the-energy-eaters.htm

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Measures to Save Electricity Quickly

Measures to Save Electricity Quickly

 

There are two ways to save electricity quickly. First, efficiency improvements can be made to the energy-using equipment such that consumers receive the same services but with less electricity consumed. (These are sometimes called “technical fixes”) In these situations the end user is barely (or not at all) aware that improvements have been made. In the second case, the

energy consumer takes deliberate measures to reduce energy use through changes in operations or procedure which may also cause inconvenience and result in a loss of service or amenity. These are typically called “behavioral” changes.

 

Technical Efficiency Measures

 

The technical measures to save electricity quickly are similar to those used to save electricity slowly except that they may be implemented with greater intensity by combining them with special subsidies or delivery schemes. Three examples are described below.

 

Retrofits—especially retrofits of large, energy-using facilities—are attractive targets during an electricity crisis. About 8% of industrial electricity is used to make compressed air, much of which is lost through leaks (Rosenberg 2003).

 

The compressed air systems therefore represent a source of major savings. California supported inspections and tune-ups of compressed air facilities in factories. Retrofits of eight factories yielded verified savings of 2 MW.

 

Lighting replacements have been the most frequently used retrofit strategy. Replacing incandescent light bulbs with compact fluorescents (CFLs) was used in Brazil, California, and New Zealand. California consumers installed nearly eight million CFLs during the crisis period, resulting in almost 500 MW of demand reduction (Pang 2003).

 

California cities replaced millions of traffic lights with LED lamps, each saving about 80 watts. California aggressively encouraged consumers to replace older appliances with new units qualifying for the Energy Star endorsement of high efficiency Fuel switching offers large electricity savings.

 

Electricity is often used to heat air or water, especially in the residential sector and in sparsely populated areas.

 

There are numerous opportunities to burn wood, oil, or natural gas directly to obtain the desired heat. Homeowners in Norway and New Zealand, for example, reverted to existing wood stoves and boilers for space and water heating.

 

Fuel switching is an important electricity-savings measure because it removes the homes’ largest electricity-consuming end uses.

 

The greatest benefits from fuel switching will generally occur during shortages caused by cold weather but some measures can also save summer peak power. For example, Brazilians replaced in-line electric shower heaters with gas-fired units, thus saving about 3 kW electrical demand per unit.

 

Effectiveness of Technical Measures

 

Technological modifications require an existing infrastructure in order to deploy the products in a short time, stretching from the manufacturer capable of quickly expanding production to skilled personnel to install them.

 

In most cases, there will not be enough time, or the infrastructure is inadequate, to establish new efficiency improvement and retrofit programs large enough to reduce demand significantly.

 

Norway, for example, addressed its electricity shortage by establishing programs to install heat pumps, energy management systems, and wood pellet stoves.

 

Skilled personnel were overwhelmed and it is unlikely that these measures cut Norway’s electricity demand during the crisis. On the other hand, California already had an established network to deliver its “saving electricity slowly” programs.

 

This network, while still inadequate, was able to rapidly increase activities during the crisis and deliver significant electricity savings. Regions that are vulnerable to temporary electricity shortfalls should consider their programs to “save electricity slowly” as a kind of insurance policy that will also serve as the backbone of a team to save electricity during a crisis.

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<p>RunGreenPower.com will teach you how to build solar &amp; wind power systems foryour home within a weekend.</p><p>Check It Now: <a rel=”nofollow” onclick=”javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackPageview', '/outgoing/article_exit_link']);” target=”_blank” href=”http://www.rungreenpower.com/2010/09/21/buy-diy-solar-power-kit/”>Why to Buy DIY solar power Kit?</a></p>
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Source: http://reschelectrical.com/measures-to-save-electricity-quickly/

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“Silent Spring at 50: The False Crises of Rachel Carson” (Reassessing environmentalism’s fateful turn from science to advocacy)

“Carson made little effort to provide a balanced perspective and consistently ignored key evidence that would have contradicted her work. Thus, while the book provided a range of notable ideas, a number of Carson’s major arguments rested on what can only be described as deliberate ignorance.”

- Roger Meiners, et. al (cover insert)

Widely credited with launching the modern environmental movement when published 50 years ago, Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring has had a profound impact on our society. While Carson was not the first to write about the dangers of pesticides or to sound environmental alarms, her writing style and ability to reach out to a broad audience allowed her to capture and retain the attention of the public.

Yet this iconic book, hardly scrutinized over the decades, substituted sensationalism for fact and apocalyptic pronouncements for genuine knowledge.

Our just released 11-author study, Silent Spring at 50: The False Crises of Rachel Carson, reexamines Carson’s historical context and science, as well as the policy consequences of Silent Spring‘s core ideas. We assembled scholars from different disciplines and asked them to evaluate Carson’s work given the state of knowledge at the time she was writing. What information was available that she ignored? Where did she deviate from accepted science of the day?

Our findings are unsettling. Carson made little effort to provide a balanced perspective and consistently ignored key evidence that would have contradicted her work. Thus, while the book provided a range of notable ideas, a number of Carson’s major arguments rested on what can only be described as deliberate ignorance.

Despite her reputation as a careful science- and fact-based writer, Carson produced a best-seller full of significant errors and sins of omission. Three areas are particularly noteworthy:

· Carson vilified the use of DDT and other pest controls in agriculture but ignored their role in saving millions of lives worldwide from malaria, typhus, dysentery, among other diseases. Millions of deaths, and much greater human suffering, ultimately resulted from pesticide bans as part of disease-eradication campaigns. Carson knew of the beneficial effects of DDT, but never discussed it; her story was all negative.

· Far from being on the verge of collapse, American bird populations were, by and large, increasing at the time of Silent Spring’s publication. Although Carson was active in the Audubon Society, she ignored Audubon’s annual bird count, which had long been the best single source on bird population. Instead she relied on anecdotes claiming bird population was collapsing. It is inconceivable that Carson did not know about the annual bird count–some of which occurred in the locations she asserted were in collapse.

· Cancer rates, exaggerated in the book, were increasing largely because far fewer people were dying from other diseases. Further, once statistical adjustments are made for population age and tobacco use, the apparent rise in cancer rates that so alarmed Silent Spring readers disappeared. Although writing at a time when scientists had come to agree that tobacco was a major cause of lung cancer, Carson ignored tobacco and relied on peculiar theories about its origins. She specifically ignored Public Health Service data on this point.

Silent Spring presented nature as a benign happy place that was “in balance.” Man was guilty of upsetting the balance and causing environmental catastrophes. As shown in the chapter on that issue, nature is far more nuanced and resilient than Carson understood. Her view that “natural” pests, such as wasps, could be used to control other bugs that were harmful in crop production, was not only short of the mark for agriculture, but overly optimistic about how benign such “natural” pests can be.

Carson’s “you can’t be too safe” standard is seen today in the “precautionary principle” that helps to retard the adoption of superior technology that would benefit people and the environment. Her simplified view of risk appears to have impacted the drafting of the Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act that set impossible standards in some areas not remotely related to human health or technical feasibility.

An intellectual, and public policy reconsideration, of Carson’s 1962 Silent Spring is long overdue.

————————–

ABOUT THE EDITOR AUTHORS

ROGER MEINERS is the Goolsby Distinguished Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Texas at Arlington and a senior fellow at the Property and Environmental Research Center in Bozeman, Montana.

PIERRE DESROCHERS is associate professor of geography at the University of Toronto. His main research areas include technical innovation, business-environmental interactions, economic development, and energy policy and food policy.

ANDREW MORRISS is D. Paul Jones, Jr. & Charlene A. Jones Chairholder in Law and Professor of Business at the University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, and is a senior fellow at the Property and Environmental Research Center in Bozeman, Montana. He has authored or coauthored more than 50 book chapters, scholarly articles, and books.

Source: http://www.masterresource.org/2012/09/silent-spring-at-50/

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Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Wind Consequences (Part II: Analysis Approach and Implementation Costs)

Part I yesterday provided an introduction and summary of results; this post describes in more detail the analysis approach and implementation costs. Parts III and IV will cover the full costs and other results.

As will be seen, dealing with wind is not as easy as some would suggest.

Analysis Approach

This analysis looks at a 13 year period (years 0-12) in which the demand growth and plant retirement due to obsolescence/age will be each 2% per year compounded. Assuming year 0 is 2012, year 12 is 2025. Table II-1 shows the situation at year 12.

Table II-1 – Year 12 Situation for a Year 0 Demand Level of 1.0 TWh

Using demand of 1 TWh in year 0 allows easy scaling for a particular jurisdiction. For example in 2010 the total US electricity production was about 4,000 TWh.

The profile of the new generation capacity to meet the electricity production gap of 0.48 TWh would normally be a combination of plant types depending on a number of considerations. However in most cases, this analysis shows the effect of using one plant type only to meet the electricity production gap. This is done to illustrate the performance of the energy source involved.

When wind is present, another plant type must also be included to balance wind’s persistent erratic behavior. This is otherwise redundant new capacity, meaning over and above that which would normally be required. There are two “wind” scenarios. One is a combination of wind and natural gas to meet the electricity production gap. Given the belief, by some at least, that more extensive wind implementation is desirable, the second scenario addresses this, allowing wind to provide the full 0.48 TWh, which we will see is not feasible.

My calculations are simplifications of complex considerations. There are more precise/sophisticated approaches in other studies, which may appear more impressive, but these will be obscure to many, and not necessarily more accurate, due to some or all of the following:

  • Sophistication of the approach, meaning the assumptions and treatment of the considerations are so difficult to understand that the whole process is largely inaccessible to many people. It also has the appearance of validity because of this. Further the authors themselves might be blinded by this.
  • Inappropriate use of complex mathematics, which is often a substitute for thinking/understanding on the part of the author(s) and readers.
  • Accuracy and incompleteness of the underlying public data, especially emissions data.
  • Omission of some of the necessary considerations, as included here, resulting in an even more “simple”, but superficial, approach, which does not produce useful results.

So my analysis falls between these two positions. It is more straight-forward and transparent, and I suggest sufficiently indicative of realistic results. See the DOE/EIA assumptions for electricity calculations in the Energy Outlook 2012 for an example of more complex treatment of the issues.

However complexity is hard to avoid given the nature of the matter. So the logic I use is complex because of the many factors at play, and this is unfortunate but necessary. On the other hand, the mathematics that follows is reasonably straight forward, the most complex being the determination of the “payment” amount for a given interest rate over time for a capital investment.

In the paraphrased words of Nassim Taleb, one can be wrong with great precision (for whatever the reason and by whatever means) instead of approximately right.[1] As well one can be wrong by being simple, but superficial.

There is so much detail that it is not practical to present it all in this series. Those interested can see it at Calculations.

Scenarios Analyzed

The scenarios analyzed are for coal, nuclear, natural gas, onshore wind/natural gas combination, and onshore wind to meet the electricity production gap, respectively. Offshore wind is not considered because it will perform no better overall than onshore.

The analysis draws on information in DOE/EIA publications.[2] For new plant implementations the “advanced” plant type information is used. In the natural gas cases, performance is taken to be the average of advanced combined cycle and advanced combustion turbine information. This combination in the natural gas scenario provides a good baseline for comparison purposes.

Table II-2 shows results in year 12 for these scenarios, assuming that in each case the energy source(s) indicated provides the total electricity production gap.

Table II-2 – Results for Year 12 by EROEIe Performance

At a high level of analysis, it appears that all energy sources identified in each scenario can fill the production gap to meet the future demand, as shown in row 1. Row 3 demonstrates the effect of deducting 50% of the energy investment (EIe) required for the new electricity infrastructure. This shortfall increases dramatically as EROEIe decreases. Note the 50% factored electrical energy component of EIe component in row 2 does not contribute to meeting the demand shown in row 1. It represents an increase in demand.

The shortfall due to the factored EIe (line 2) may be made up from existing plant capacity, increasing the capacity factor for new plants or by adding additional new plants. This is a complex matter and depends in part upon the profile of the plant portfolio retired/added and those remaining over the analysis period. For example existing or new hydro generation plants typically have a low capacity factor and cannot realistically be relied upon for more production, and existing or new plants supplying base load already have a high capacity factor and consequently are not available for additional production. In the higher EIe scenarios, it is assumed that additional new plant capacity is required.

For the wind/natural gas scenario, duplicate, reliable, flexible capacity, that is 88 MW of gas plant capacity, is required for wind balancing. In this analysis it is higher than the full wind case for a number of reasons:

  • The 38% wind penetration represents a level that is not supportable within an electricity system without substantially more gas plant balancing capacity than that shown here.[3] This is a complex scenario to analyze and the most straight forward approach is to assume substantial wind curtailment, or some other form of dumping, such as export or paying some customers, who are able to accommodate it, to take the excess electricity produced. The analysis assumes an annualized average of 55 MW for wind, so curtailment would occur to a high degree when the wind electricity flux exceeds 55 MW (MWh/h) in real time. Alternatively, gas plant capacity would be required to meet demand during periods of real time wind production below 55 MW. The wind balancing gas plants will operate at lower efficiencies as a result.
  • Higher gas plant capacities would be an alternative approach, otherwise wind may have gained too much in this analysis. Some attempt has been made to indicate this, primarily to introduce it as a factor to be noted, but it is not easy to project the amounts involved, because this would be dependent on the inevitable curtailment levels described above. This approach would also mean some of the existing plant base would have to be reduced to accommodate the combined wind/gas production, which may or may not be feasible, depending on the profile of that portion of the total plant fleet. There are cost consequences in this connection, which are covered below.

To remove the wind scenario would leave open the question as to its consequences. So it has been left in with the understanding that it is not a realistic option at all, but some measure of these consequences can be determined.

There are other factors not covered in the wind scenarios. First is the effect of the inevitable lower wind capacity factors as penetration increases due to the better sites being already taken. Second, payments that would likely be made to (1) wind plant owners to compensate them for curtailment, otherwise they would not be financially viable (alarms bells should sound here), and (2) conventional plant operators who will be required to reduce production, otherwise reasonably expected to be earned, due to policies requiring wind to take precedence, as it occurs.

Finally, do not be distracted by reports of wind causing low (or even negative) electricity rates in the wholesale markets. The costs shown here must be paid by someone and will appear in taxes and retail electricity rates in the jurisdiction hosting the wind plants.

The adverse effects of wind imposition increase with wind penetration. Table II-3- provides this for the wind scenarios, which is aggressive at 11%. This is in the range of the most wind intensive countries in Europe (including Denmark after taking exports into account), which are at domestic saturation levels. Remember though that these countries are dependent on international markets for their otherwise unsustainable wind turbine manufacturing industries so must live with the consequences to promote the policy. The US wind penetration in electrical energy terms in 2010 was 2.3%.[4]

Table II-3 – Wind Penetration

Be careful with wind penetration statistics to properly understand them. First they should be in energy terms, not capacity, and should be free of exports and any special treatment of curtailment.

New Generation Plant Implementation Costs

Table II-4 shows details of the cumulative overnight implementation costs for new plants at year 12. Reserve considerations are covered in Calculations. In the wind scenarios these are part of all the total costs associated with the persistent erratic nature of wind. This starts to explain the significant variance with DOE/EIA reported amounts when levelized costs are shown in Part III. So the following information starts on the path of providing a basis for comparison to the other plant types.

Table II-4 – New Plant Cumulative Overnight Implementation Costs at Year 12

DOE/EIA overnight capital costs are used except in the nuclear scenario, for which a higher implementation cost of $8.0 per MW (versus the DOE/EIA cost of $5.3 million) is taken to be conservative. The wind/natural gas case has lower implementation costs than nuclear largely because of the gas plant contribution, which provides 70% of the electricity production gap due to the assumed 30% capacity factor for wind. A more instructive comparison can be seen in the wind scenario.

However, remember that in both wind scenarios, the wind plants produce for only 15 years versus the other plant types, which have longer lives. For comparison purposes, both wind scenarios should assess the costs for two wind plant replacements over the 40 year period, which would raise the wind/natural gas new plant cost to $476 million and the wind scenario to $1,389 million. As we will see this is not the total picture.

For the Table II-4 values, the US investment, excluding unique-to-wind grid investments, for the wind/natural gas case would be $212 million (per TWh) x 4,000 (total US TWh in 2010) = $712,000 million or $712 billion and consistent with my findings elsewhere.

In the wind/natural gas scenario the gas plant capacity is required to ensure wind is fully balanced. Some of this capacity is generating electricity that is balancing wind, but coincidentally is meeting some demand. The full plant implementation costs are attributed to wind, because wind requires that capacity to be there for it to work in an electricity system. When full wind costs are allocated in later posts, the “normal” costs of the gas plant operations and maintenance, including fuel costs which are significant, are not attributed to wind, even though the energy flux is part of the necessary wind balancing. However there is an efficiency loss for wind balancing plants and this is attributed to wind costs.

A baseline of the minimum total capacity needed to meet future demand appears to be in the range of 198-229 MW per TWh of electricity production (Table II-3). An analysis in Calculations supports 230 MW. The coal and nuclear scenarios show lower numbers because of their high capacity factors, and the simplifying assumption that each scenario, except for the wind/natural gas combination, shows the effect a single fuel source used to meet the electricity production gap.

So, in the wind/natural gas case an additional (that is over and above what would normally be required to meet demand) 50 MW (280–230 MW), or 91% of the wind capacity is needed for 11% wind penetration. This additional capacity is fairly consistent with the concept of wind capacity credit forecasts from the German Energy Agency (dena) for 8% wind penetration, which shows that additional redundant capacity of 94% of the wind capacity is required.[5] According to dena and other sources, capacity credit decreases as wind penetration increases, so the new gas plant capacity here is likely understated for 11% wind penetration.

To further understand the impact of the wind scenario, Table II-5 scales to U.S. electricity system the plant types being assessed.

Table II-5 – Scaling Capacities to the U.S. Electricity System of 1,100 GW

In the wind/natural gas scenario adequate wind balancing capacity has also been added to absorb wind’s persistent erratic behavior. In the wind scenario, as already noted, considerable wind curtailment would have to occur otherwise the remaining 364 MW of the U.S. generation capacity (1,100 – 736) would be totally inadequate to balance wind. This is not a recipe for a reliable electricity system.

Grid Costs Unique to Wind

Generally speaking, the existing electricity grid is a distribution network to users from centralized generation plants, which are sited depending upon need. It is established to serve users. Changes to this grid will be necessary over the period studied due to replacement, increases in demand, including regional shifts in demand, and upgrades or improvements in grid technology. The provision of economic, reliable electricity, as and when required, is a social need and these costs should be shared amongst all generation sources.

On the other hand, again generally speaking, grid changes needed to accommodate wind are for energy collection, otherwise not needed long distance transmission to demand locations and user demand management systems needed to serve wind’s shortcomings. In other words, grid changes unique to wind plants, are primarily due to (1) the dispersion of the energy source (fuel), wind (and solar radiation), (2) the need to site these plants where the energy flux is strongest, not necessarily near to demand centers, and, (3) such other technologies (such as smart meters) that purport to facilitate the integration of unreliable, random wind production through possible demand limitation and conveniently provide the electricity cost rate capability needed to finance them. They serve the wind plants.

These grid changes unique to wind are substantial, with a required monetary investment of about the same order of magnitude as the wind plants. In smaller wind penetrations with curtailment not as large, some transmission lines must have the capacity to carry up to full wind production, not the annualized average at 30% of capacity. I have not seen a comprehensive study and these costs are hard to quantify, but I have previously made an attempt to do so here and here. Table II-6 shows these cost estimates for the scenarios.

Table II-6 – Overnight Grid Implementation Costs Unique to Wind

The grid costs are amortized over 40 years. At the 15 year plant life for wind plants three ongoing options present themselves.

  • Option 1. – Remove and do not replace the wind plants. In this case the unique-to-wind grid elements may represent stranded costs or they might be useful in the ongoing electricity system, or some blend of these two considerations. Most likely they will be stranded costs.
  • Option 2. – Re-invest in new wind plants in the same location to the capacity that existed at year 15. In this case the above grid elements would be needed as before. This analysis provides for this.

From an EROEI point of view, the grid changes unique to wind are included in the net EROEI calculated for wind. The EI burden of these grid changes is assumed to be 1 year of wind plant production, added to that of the wind plant EI. This represents one-half of the EI energy burden for the wind plants themselves, but could be larger.

Claims are often made about the smoothing benefits of geographic dispersion of wind plants. Although this might seem intuitively so, real experience shows this does very little improve wind’s overall persistent erratic behavior.[6]

For information on smart grid issues, and the reasons for not moving too quickly into this area, see my articles at MasterResource.[7]

Coming Next

As interesting and informative as the overnight implementation costs for plants and grid changes might be, they only show part of the cost picture. Wind is not doing well, and it does not get any better. Simply put: wind is not a “plug and play” option.

The next post will develop the full costs, which will take into consideration whether or not the wind plants are replaced after 15 years. My expectation is that by 2025, likely much sooner, we will have finally come to our senses that grid-feeding, industrial-scale wind is not feasible and not worthy of commercialization.


[1] Taleb, Nassim (2007). “The Black Swan”, Random House, p74

[2] These are primarily:

DOE/EIA (2012). “Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2012” http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm

DOE/EIA (2012). “Assumptions – Electricity Market Module” http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/pdf/electricity.pdf

[3] Denmark is a case in point. It has a wind penetration as a percentage of domestic consumption in the high twenties. It manages this by exporting the majority of the wind production to Norway/Sweden where the combined hydro capacity is 30 times Denmark’s wind production. For more information see “Peeling Back the Onion of Denmark Wind (Part III – Wind Electricity Used in Denmark”, at http://www.masterresource.org/2010/10/denmark-part-iii-internal/

[4] DOE/EIA (2011). “Electricity: Detailed State Data”, first spreadsheet. Penetration calculated from totals at bottom of first spreadsheet. http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/state/

[5] Study commissioned by the German Energy Agency, Deutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH (dena) (2005), “Planning of the Grid Integration of Wind Energy in Germany Onshore and Offshore up to the Year 2020 (dena Grid study)” http://www.susplan.eu/fileadmin/susplan/documents/dena-grid_study_summary.pdf. Wind capacity credit can be calculated from Tables 1 and 5 in the Appendix as follows for 2010: 1.8 (GW statistically guaranteed) / 29.8 (GW wind installed) = 6%. This means 94% of wind capacity has to be provided by redundant reliable capacity to ensure overall electricity system reliability (at a fairly liberal 99%). Actual wind penetration in 2010 was only 37.5 TWh, or 6% penetration, lower than 2005 projections of 29.8 (GW) x 0.18 (CF) x 8760 (hours per year) = 46,989 GWh or 47 TWh. http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/03/new-record-for-german-renewable-energy-in-2010 . This suggests that the projected penetration was expected to be about 8%. The conclusion is that more gas plant capacity is needed than shown in my calculations above. For more information on capacity credit considerations see http://dialogue.usaee.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=95&Itemid=113

[6] The following is a list of references on this subject:

http://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2011/04/gone_with_the_wind_debunking_geographic_diversity_1.html

http://www.ref.org.uk/attachments/article/227/info%20note%20ref%20%20poyry%2031%2003%2011.pdf

http://www.slideshare.net/JohnDroz/energy-presentationkey-presentation slides 70-73

Wind Power in Ontario: Quantifying the Benefits of Geographic Diversity

http://www.wind-watch.org/documents/wp-content/uploads/oswald-energy-policy-2008.pdf

http://aefweb.info/data/Wind%20farming%20in%20SE%20Australia.pdf

[7] Hawkins, Kent (2011). “The Smart Grid and Distributed Generation: A Glimpse of a Distant Future” http://www.masterresource.org/2011/04/the-smart-grid-and-dg/ and (2010) “Smart Grid Problems Revealed: The NERC Study” http://www.masterresource.org/2010/08/smart-grid-nerc/

Source: http://www.masterresource.org/2012/09/wind-consequences-ii/

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